CBJ JULY 2026

15 TRADING ON UNCERTAINTY: TRUMP’S CUSMA GAMBLE & CANADA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE JULY 2026 « The Canadian Business Journal 14 The Sectors Most at Risk Not every industry faces equal exposure. Automotive manufacturing remains among the most vulnerable because North American production is deeply integrated. Components routinely cross borders multiple times before final assembly, making even modest tariff changes expensive. Agriculture also faces uncertainty, particularly in dairy, grains and livestock, where market access has long been politically sensitive. Steel and aluminum producers remain wary after previous rounds of tariffs demonstrated how quickly trade policy can affect profitability. Technology companies are watching digital trade provisions closely, particularly those governing cross-border data flows and intellectual property protections. Meanwhile, energy producers are likely to experience less immediate disruption simply because North America’s energy markets remain highly interconnected and difficult to replace quickly. Financial Markets Prefer Stability Currency markets often react before politicians finish speaking. Whenever uncertainty surrounding Canada- U.S. trade intensifies, the Canadian dollar tends to weaken as investors reassess future economic growth. Bond markets monitor similar risks. Lower expected investment generally translates into slower productivity growth and weaker long-term economic expansion. Canadian equities may also experience