CBJ SEPTEMBER 2026

15 FRIENDLY FIRE: INSIDE THE CANADA-US TARIFF WAR RESHAPING TRADE SEPTEMBER 2026 « The Canadian Business Journal 14 than assumed, then the case for fixing long- standing domestic inefficiencies gets a lot more urgent. Planning for a Fight With No Fixed End Date Over the coming months, the details will matter more than the rhetoric. Key questions include whether the carve-out for autos and parts holds if tensions escalate further, whether either side moves to expand or narrow the current tariff lists, and whether talks resume in any serious form. Most observers expect the fight to continue in this tit-for-tat form for some time rather than resolve quickly in either direction — a negotiated ceasefire and a further escalation both remain plausible. For businesses, that argues for treating the current tariff lists as a floor rather than a ceiling: building pricing, sourcing, and contract terms that can flex if the numbers move again, rather than waiting for a stable endpoint that may not arrive soon. The Old Assumption Is Gone Perhaps the most significant consequence of this year isn’t measured in tariff dollars at all. For decades, Canadian businesses treated close, low-friction access to the American market as something close to permanent — a function of geography, alliance, and history that no single administration could really undo. That assumption is gone. What replaces it will be shaped by choices Canada makes now: whether it uses this moment to seriously diversify its trade relationships and invest in its own competitiveness, or whether it simply waits out the conflict and hopes the old arrangement quietly returns. Two of the closest allies and closest neighbours in the world are now trading blows instead of goods on the terms they always had — and Canadian business is being forced to plan for a relationship it can no longer take for granted.